12% S&P 500 Earnings Growth Forecast vs. Allianz Stagflation Warning
JPMorgan and Future Fund forecast 12% S&P 500 earnings growth to $310 by end-2026 and advise adding positions on short-term weakness as Brent crude spikes. Allianz warns stagflation risk if the U.S.-Iran conflict prolongs, noting limited Fed flexibility and 10-year Treasury yields around 4%-4.5%.
1. Optimistic outlook from JPMorgan and Future Fund
JPMorgan’s strategists advise investors to buy on price dips as oil price volatility fades, projecting that S&P 500 earnings will grow 12% to $310 by end-2026 and citing solid fundamentals in technology valuations.
2. Stagflation risk highlighted by Allianz
Allianz warns that prolongation and spread of the U.S.-Iran conflict could trigger stagflation, driven by sustained oil and core goods inflation, and notes that Federal Reserve policy flexibility is constrained with 10-year Treasury yields trading between 4% and 4.5%.
3. Strategic allocations and market performance
UBS recommends modest gold allocations as crude disruptions test markets, with gold near $5,395/oz, while year-to-date the Dow has gained 1.08%, the S&P 500 is down 0.34% and the Nasdaq Composite has declined 2.09%.