244% Semiconductor Rally Prices in 2028, Poses Reversal Risk for Advanced Micro Devices
The SOXX semiconductor ETF has surged 244% from April 2025 lows, with current valuations pricing in 2026–28 earnings and driven increasingly by speculative momentum in lower-quality names rather than fundamentals. Nvidia’s recent pullback after nearly reaching a record high signals possible cooling in the rally, which could pressure AMD’s sector-driven gains.
1. Sector Rally Overview
The SOXX ETF, representing leading semiconductor names, has climbed 244% from its April 2025 trough as AI-related capex expectations propel valuations. Current prices reflect projected earnings through 2026–28, with speculative trading in smaller, lower-quality companies increasingly underpinning gains rather than core fundamentals.
2. Risks and Implications for AMD
Historical parabolic rallies often end in sharp, rapid reversals with long recovery periods, raising concerns for semiconductor stocks including AMD. Nvidia’s pullback after nearly touching a record high may mark early signs of cooling momentum that could dampen AMD’s recent sector-driven advance.