Acadia Pharmaceuticals Upgraded to Buy After 25% Pullback, Maintains $29 Target
Bank of America upgraded Acadia Pharmaceuticals to Buy from Neutral after a 25% year-to-date pullback and maintained a $29 price target. They estimate Nuplazid peak sales of $888 million by 2029 and expect a Phase 2 Alzheimer’s psychosis readout by October targeting $2.1 billion in peak sales.
1. Bank of America Upgrade
Bank of America moved Acadia Pharmaceuticals from Neutral to Buy after the stock fell approximately 25% year-to-date, arguing the decline reflects macro factors rather than fundamental issues. The firm left its price objective at $29 per share.
2. Nuplazid Provides Valuation Floor
Analysts highlight Nuplazid’s stable Parkinson’s disease psychosis sales as a downside protector, projecting $888 million in peak revenue by 2029 and noting intellectual property protection through 2038. Acadia has also expanded its Nuplazid commercial team by about 30%, with management anticipating sales benefits in the second half of the year.
3. Pipeline Upside with Remlifanserin
Beyond Nuplazid, the $11 billion pipeline opportunity is viewed as underappreciated, with particular focus on remlifanserin for Alzheimer’s and Lewy body dementia psychosis. A Phase 2 readout in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis is expected between August and October, and the program is modeled to reach $2.1 billion in peak sales.
4. Key Risks
Potential headwinds include slower-than-expected Nuplazid growth, negative clinical or regulatory outcomes for pipeline candidates that could shift valuation reliance back to Nuplazid, and continued stagnation in Daybue sales for Rett syndrome.