ADT Shares Plunge 10.3% After Q4 Revenue Miss and Weak Outlook

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ADT’s Q4 2025 revenue of $1.28 billion missed estimates while adjusted EPS matched forecasts at $0.23, driving a 10.3% stock drop. Analysts now project only modest revenue and earnings growth over the next twelve months alongside a declining free-cash-flow margin.

1. Q4 2025 Results and Stock Reaction

ADT reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion, falling short of consensus while delivering adjusted EPS of $0.23 in line with expectations. The mixed results triggered a 10.3% share price decline, marking one of the company’s largest daily moves in over a year.

2. Outlook and Cash Flow Projections

Analysts now forecast only modest revenue and earnings growth over the next twelve months and expect a contraction in free-cash-flow margin, raising questions about ADT’s future cash generation and operational efficiency.

3. Valuation and Market Context

ADT’s shares have had just two moves greater than 5% in the past year, highlighting the rarity of such volatility. Trading roughly 19% below its 52-week high of $8.85, the stock’s downturn reflects growing investor caution despite limited long-term gains.

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