ADT continues to trade at low single-digit EV/EBITDA multiples despite being the clear market leader in residential and commercial security services. With a subscriber base exceeding 6 million, the company generates reliable, recurring cash flows supported by long-term service contracts. Investors’ reluctance to assign a premium valuation to ADT contrasts sharply with the company’s consistent track record of revenue and earnings growth.

Over the past 12 months, ADT has achieved $4.3 billion in annualized revenue, reflecting stable contract renewal rates above 90% and year-over-year subscriber additions of approximately 150,000. The company’s investments in smart home integrations and professional monitoring have improved average revenue per user by 4% quarter to quarter. Operational efficiencies, including network optimization and call-center consolidation, have delivered margin expansion of roughly 120 basis points in the last fiscal year.

Management has provided guidance for full-year 2025 revenue of $5.075 billion to $5.175 billion, representing growth of nearly 20% from current trailing revenues on an annualized basis. EBITDA is forecast at $2.665 billion to $2.715 billion, implying expansion of 15% at midpoint compared with this year’s run rate. Free cash flow is expected to exceed $900 million, supported by disciplined capex of approximately $450 million and a declining leverage ratio targeted below 4.0x net debt to EBITDA by year end 2025.

ADT’s combination of scale, predictable subscription-based cash flows and ongoing service innovation positions the company for sustained value creation. At current valuation levels, the business offers a margin of safety against macroeconomic headwinds. Institutional buy-and-hold investors stand to benefit from compounding earnings growth, steady dividend coverage and potential multiple expansion as confidence in ADT’s strategy continues to build.