Advanced Micro Devices Gains 3.8% as Intel Forecasts Lowest Supply in Q1

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Advanced Micro Devices shares rose 3.8% on Jan. 23 after Intel forecast Q1 sales at $11.7B—below expectations—citing supply constraints that should bottom out in Q1 and improve in Q2. Investors are redirecting chip orders to AMD to capitalize on stronger supply for AI and data center workloads.

1. AMD’s 2025 Outperformance Fueled by Data Center Momentum

Advanced Micro Devices delivered a 77% gain in its share price during 2025, outpacing Nvidia’s 39% return, as its data center segment achieved record revenues. In the third quarter of 2025 the division generated $4.3 billion, up 22% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for 5th Gen EPYC CPUs and Instinct accelerators. AMD secured a multi-year partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of MI300 series GPU power for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure, and won design contracts with major hyperscalers and cloud service providers seeking alternatives to competitors facing capacity constraints.

2. CES 2026 Launch of MI400 Series Targets High-Growth Inference Market

At CES 2026 AMD unveiled its MI400 accelerator family and Helios rack systems for exascale computing, positioning itself to capture the faster-growing AI inference market. Management projects data center revenue to grow at a greater than 60% compound annual rate over the next several years, reflecting confidence in the performance-per-dollar advantages of its latest architectures versus rival offerings. The MI400 lineup’s emphasis on power efficiency and scalability is designed to broaden deployments beyond hyperscale customers into enterprise and telco use cases.

3. Q4 2025 Earnings Preview and Analyst Estimate Revisions

Investors are focused on the Q4 2025 results, expected in early February, with consensus forecasting revenue of $9.65 billion (up 26% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $1.32 (a 21.1% increase). In the past 60 days analysts have raised their EPS estimates by an average of 0.76%, reflecting positive revision activity tied to strong data center momentum and expanding partnerships. AMD currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) with a +2.01% Earnings ESP indicator, suggesting a favorable probability of exceeding consensus.

4. Diversified Growth Drivers Beyond AI Accelerators

While data center solutions are the primary growth engine, AMD’s client and gaming segments remain significant contributors. Ryzen CPU shipments have benefited from AI-enabled PC refresh cycles, and the company continues to expand its embedded and semi-custom businesses. This diversification helps smooth revenue volatility and supports margin expansion, as rising sales of higher-mix AI infrastructure products lift overall gross margins toward the mid-50% range achieved in late 2025.

Sources

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