AI boom bolstered growth in global trade, benefiting China and India, IMF says
SPY•Global trade grew 8.3% from 2023 to 2025, while trade in AI grew 29%, the IMF said. Without AI trade, overall trade growth would have been 4.6%.
1. AI trade lifts growth
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said strong demand for AI bolstered growth in China, India and other Asian countries, helping global trade grow faster than it otherwise would have. She said the AI-related investment and trade boom had been a key driver of global growth.
2. Risks and scenarios
Tenreyro said AI supply chains were concentrated in a few countries and sectors, creating potential chokepoints. The IMF also flagged risks from a market-value correction and AI-related cybersecurity threats. Its baseline forecast assumes the AI boom will dissipate over time; if it persists without productivity gains, growth gains would be smaller and inflation higher.
