AI Models Forecast Up to 5.8% Nvidia Rally After 2.5% Drop
Nvidia shares fell 2.5% after reports of internal doubts over its planned up-to-$100 billion OpenAI investment. AI-driven tools ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude forecast a 4.06%–5.79% rally by February 28, while analysts’ 21-month average target is $262.79 and the commitment equals 53% of trailing revenue and 89% of EBITDA.
1. Internal Doubts Surface Over $100 Billion OpenAI Proposal
According to a Wall Street Journal report, several Nvidia executives have expressed reservations about the company’s previously touted plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. Concerns center on the size of the commitment relative to Nvidia’s most recent trailing twelve-month revenue of $187 billion and EBITDA of $113 billion. Insiders question whether deploying more than half of annual revenue on a single partner, especially one facing intensifying competition from Google and Anthropic, aligns with the chipmaker’s historical emphasis on disciplined capital allocation.
2. CEO Emphasizes Letter of Intent, Not Binding Commitment
In a press briefing in Taipei, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang clarified that the $100 billion figure originated from a nonbinding letter of intent and was presented as an invitation to invest “up to” that amount. Huang reiterated that investment decisions will be made incrementally, one step at a time. He defended OpenAI’s strategic value—citing its leading market share in dedicated AI platform usage—and highlighted the company’s intention to continue funding AI infrastructure projects while preserving flexibility on timing and scale of capital deployment.
3. AI-Driven Forecasts Predict Continued Upside
Machine-learning models from ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude Sonnet forecast further gains for Nvidia shares by late February, estimating average upside in the mid-single digits. These projections align with the broader consensus among sell-side analysts, whose average 21-month target remains more than 40 percent above current levels based on recent TipRanks data. The uniformity of model outputs—ranging from roughly a 4 percent to 6 percent increase—suggests market participants view any short-term pullbacks as temporary setbacks rather than a sustained trend reversal.
4. Investor Sentiment Hinges on Execution and Communication
While the internal debate over the OpenAI deal has introduced uncertainty, investors are attentively monitoring Nvidia’s execution on its core GPU business and clarity around future capital commitments. With reported gross margins near 65 percent and operating margins approaching 55 percent in the latest fiscal year, the company’s profitability profile remains robust. Market watchers note that reaffirmation of disciplined spending and transparent updates on large-scale partnerships will be critical to sustaining Nvidia’s premium valuation multiple and confidence among the Magnificent Seven cohort.