AI shopping agents could threaten Amazon and Walmart's ad business
AMZN•AI shopping agents could weaken traditional retail advertising, which Amazon and Walmart dominate with a combined 88% share of an estimated $74.4 billion US market. Amazon has blocked Meta's Muse, while Walmart is enabling third-party agentic commerce; Amazon's ad revenue grew 11% in the third quarter, its slowest pace in nearly four years.
1. Agents challenge retail ads
AI agents that research and buy products for consumers could disrupt retail media advertising and the customer data that supports it. Amazon and Walmart together hold 88% of the US retail media market, estimated at $74.4 billion.
2. Different company strategies
Amazon has blocked Meta's Muse, saying it accessed the store without authorization and captured and stored customer credentials. Walmart launched infrastructure on October 21 that lets third-party agents browse, with profiles linked to shoppers' accounts; consumers can approve purchases or set spending limits. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said last week that third-party agents have had no meaningful effect on Amazon ads so far.
3. Marketing may adapt
Amazon's advertising revenue grew 11% year over year in the third quarter, its slowest growth in nearly four years, and accounts for about 10% of total net sales. Emarketer forecasts US retail media spending will be 22.6% higher in 2026 than last year's $60.7 billion. Walmart is testing ads in its Sparky chatbot, while Amazon has embedded ads in Alexa for Shopping.
