AI themes drive venture exits, leaving most unicorns on the sidelines, Morgan Stanley says

Venture-backed exits in 2026 are being driven by idiosyncratic, thematic demand for AI, infrastructure, defense/space, power and select biotech companies rather than a genuine market-wide reopening, leaving most of the unicorn backlog stuck on the sidelines, according to Morgan Stanley.

Over half of all unicorns are SaaS companies, Morgan Stanley noted in a research note, while the broader group of technology/software categories are substantially under-represented in IPOs year to date, relative to their share of existing unicorns by count.

However, the broker added that it sees thematic tailwinds boosting momentum within verticals for unicorns that overlap with AI themes.

The bank estimates that companies tagged as AI-related have median valuation ages of approximately 0.7–1.2 years, compared with roughly 3.0–4.3 years for non-AI-themed peers in the same verticals.

Year-to-date, proceeds from venture-backed exits have already surpassed 2021 peak proceeds, while the number of exits remains below both 2021 and last year, it noted. Aggregate proceeds were heavily concentrated in the SpaceX SPCX.O IPO, which contributed 82% of all VC-backed IPO proceeds.