AI to stay dominant force behind US business investment in 2027, Goldman says
SPY•Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-related hardware and intellectual property spending will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026 and reach $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, nearly 4% of the US economy. It expects US business investment growth of 8% in 2027, nearly double the 4.2% consensus forecast.
1. AI spending forecast
Goldman Sachs forecasts annualized spending on AI-related hardware and intellectual property will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026 and climb to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027. The brokerage said AI will remain the dominant driver of business investment growth in 2027.
2. Growth estimates
Goldman estimates AI-related investment will add 5.3 percentage points to 2027 capital expenditure growth, including semiconductor investment, and 0.6 percentage points to US GDP growth. Excluding semiconductor investment, it estimates the contribution at 4.3 percentage points to capital expenditure growth and 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
3. Investment outlook
Goldman forecasts US business investment growth of 8% on a quarterly basis in 2027, nearly double the 4.2% consensus forecast. It said the midterm election results pose only limited risks to AI investment, despite concerns about tighter regulation of data-center development.
