Alaska crude oil production to rise 13% in 2027, EIA says
USO•Alaska crude oil production is forecast to rise 13%, or 60,000 barrels per day, in 2027 to 505,000 bpd, its highest level since 2014. New output from the Pikka Phase 1 and Nuna projects is expected to boost supply.
1. Production forecast
The EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will rise by 23,000 bpd, or 6%, in 2026, followed by a further increase of 60,000 bpd, or 13%, in 2027. At a forecast 505,000 bpd, output would be the most since 2014 and mark the state's largest annual production gains since the 1980s, when output peaked at about 2 million bpd.
2. New project output
ConocoPhillips' Nuna project started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 bpd at peak; it has averaged 10,000 bpd so far this year. Pikka Phase 1, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026, reached 38,000 bpd in September and expects to reach peak production of 80,000 bpd by winter 2026–27.
3. Arctic exploration
The US Interior Department is preparing to ease environmental review requirements for some oil and gas exploration activities in Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve as part of the administration's push to speed energy development in the Arctic.
