Alcoa reported Q4 revenue of $3.45 billion, a sequential increase of 15%, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.31 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.26, beating the consensus estimate of $0.95 by 32.6%. Net income for the quarter rose to $226 million from $202 million a year earlier, driven by higher realized aluminum prices and carbon compensation benefits in Europe.

Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, totaled $546 million, up $276 million sequentially. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 3% quarter-over-quarter on higher bauxite offtake and alumina shipments. The Aluminum segment saw third-party revenue climb 21% sequentially, reflecting stronger pricing and shipment volumes. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $537 million, contributing to a quarter-end cash balance of $1.6 billion.

For fiscal 2026, Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and aluminum production of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, driven by productivity gains and the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain. The company expects Q1 adjusted EBITDA in the Alumina segment to decline by approximately $30 million due to seasonal maintenance and lower volumes. Aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA is projected to decrease by about $70 million, reflecting the absence of carbon compensation benefits and increased costs from smelter restarts.

On January 23, B. Riley maintained a Buy rating on Alcoa and raised its price target from $44 to $78, signaling confidence in continued earnings momentum and cost discipline. In premarket trading following the earnings release, Alcoa shares were up 1.09% at $63.83, approaching a 52-week high of $66.95 and reflecting investor optimism around the 2026 production ramp-up.