Alcoa Reports 15% Q4 Revenue Gain, Guides Higher 2026 Production
Alcoa reported Q4 revenue of $3.45B, up 15% sequentially, with adjusted EPS of $1.26 exceeding the $0.92 consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $546M (+$276M Q/Q). For fiscal 2026 it forecasts alumina production of 9.7–9.9M tonnes and aluminum output of 2.4–2.6M tonnes, but expects $100M of Q1 EBITDA headwinds.
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Alcoa delivered a robust fourth-quarter performance with revenue of $3.45 billion, up 15 percent sequentially and 6.6 percent above consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS reached $1.26, a 32.6 percent surprise over estimates and a 21 percent increase year-over-year. Net income attributable to the company rose to $226 million, compared with $202 million in the year-ago quarter, underscoring strong cost control and pricing power in both the alumina and aluminum segments.
2. Segment Dynamics Drive EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, climbed by $276 million sequentially to $546 million. In the alumina division, third-party revenue increased 3 percent quarter-over-quarter on higher bauxite offtake agreements and shipment volumes. The aluminum unit saw revenue surge 21 percent sequentially, driven by stronger realized pricing and a 9 percent rise in shipments. Carbon compensation benefits in Spain and Norway contributed $57 million to segment profitability.
3. Strengthened Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
The company generated $537 million in operating cash flow in Q4, a sequential improvement of $452 million, ending the quarter with a cash balance of $1.6 billion. Free cash flow reached $294 million after capital expenditures of $243 million. During the period, the remaining $141 million of senior notes due 2027 were redeemed, reducing total debt and enhancing liquidity ahead of planned smelter restarts.
4. 2026 Guidance and Growth Initiatives
For fiscal 2026, Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, reflecting productivity gains and the restart of the San Ciprián smelter. Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to face a combined headwind of approximately $100 million, driven by seasonal maintenance in alumina, lower bauxite volumes, and the absence of prior period carbon credits in the aluminum segment. Management affirmed its focus on cost discipline, operational reliability and strategic asset optimization.