Alcoa reported Q4 revenue of $3.45 billion, representing a 15% sequential gain that surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.31 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.26, well above the street consensus of $0.92. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items rose to $546 million, up $276 million from the prior quarter, driven by higher realized aluminum pricing, recognition of CO₂ compensation credits in Spain and Norway, and the absence of asset retirement obligation charges seen in Q3. The company generated $537 million in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $1.6 billion in cash on hand.

In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 3% sequentially on higher bauxite offtake volumes and alumina shipments, while average realized alumina prices declined slightly. Alumina production edged up 1% to 2.48 million metric tons, led by stronger output at Australian refineries. The Aluminum segment delivered a 21% sequential revenue boost, reflecting both increased shipment volumes and improved average realized prices. Aluminum production rose 4% to 604,000 metric tons, driven by the ongoing restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain.

For full-year 2026 Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, supported by planned smelter restarts and productivity gains. First-quarter guidance anticipates a combined sequential EBITDA headwind of roughly $100 million—$30 million in the Alumina segment due to seasonal maintenance and lower bauxite volumes, and $70 million in Aluminum reflecting the absence of CO₂ credits and elevated restart costs at San Ciprián. The company remains positioned to capitalize on higher aluminum prices and intends to continue disciplined capital allocation.

B. Riley has maintained its Buy recommendation on Alcoa, raising its 12-month price target from $44 to $78 to reflect improved earnings visibility and strong free-cash-flow generation. The uplift in target price follows the company’s ability to exceed top- and bottom-line estimates, consistent operational execution across its global asset base, and expectations for robust aluminum market fundamentals driven by smelter restarts and demand from aerospace and automotive end markets.