Alcoa Stock Rallies 65.4% and Forecasts 2.6M Tonnes 2026 Aluminum Output
Alcoa shares jumped 65.4% over the past three months, closing at $63.15 and trading above both 50- and 200-day moving averages while outperforming peers Olympic Steel (+49.9%) and Constellium (+57.8%). The company forecasts 2026 aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million tonnes and alumina shipments of up to 12.0 million tonnes.
1. Three-Month Price Performance
Over the past three months, Alcoa shares surged 65.4%, closing at $63.15 and remaining below the 52-week high of $66.95. The stock trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling strong momentum, and has outperformed peers Olympic Steel (+49.9%) and Constellium (+57.8%).
2. Demand Drivers and Tariffs
Steel tariffs imposed in June 2025 raised imported aluminum costs by 50%, boosting domestic producers. Strong demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, rechargeable battery makers and increased air travel has underpinned growth in aluminum alloys for vehicles and aircraft.
3. Production Forecasts and Segment Performance
In 2025 Alcoa’s Aluminum segment produced 2.319 million tonnes (+5% year-over-year) with third-party revenues up 4%. For 2026 management projects aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million tonnes and shipments of 2.6–2.8 million tonnes. Alumina production is expected at 9.7–9.9 million tonnes, with shipments of 11.8–12.0 million tonnes despite the Kwinana refinery closure.
4. Valuation and Earnings Revisions
Alcoa’s forward 12-month P/E stands at 12.72X, below peers Olympic Steel (17.06X) and Constellium (14.25X) and in line with the industry average of 12.69X. Analysts have raised 2026 EPS estimates by 38.5% to $5.18 and 2027 estimates by 27.4% to $5.26 over the past 60 days.