AllianceBernstein Buys Polish and Czech Bonds as EM Stocks Fall 10%
Emerging-market stocks have slumped about 10% this month while local-currency bond yields hit two-year highs, prompting AllianceBernstein’s emerging debt team to buy Polish and Czech local bonds plus dollar-denominated Venezuelan and Lebanese securities. They bet central banks will cut instead of raise rates to stave off a growth shock.
1. Market Selloff Spurs Opportunity
Emerging-market stocks have declined roughly 10% this month, marking the worst performance since 2022, while average yields on local-currency bonds have climbed to their highest level in nearly two years. Energy-importing economies such as Poland, South Africa and Thailand saw bond yields jump by 50 to 100 basis points as currencies slid more than 5% against the dollar.
2. AB’s Contrarian Strategy
AllianceBernstein’s emerging debt team, led by Christian DiClementi, views the selloff as a buying opportunity and has joined other dip-buying investors in stepping against the prevailing negative sentiment. This contrarian approach targets markets with the steepest declines, under the belief that price drops have overestimated future risks.
3. Targeted Asset Purchases
The firm has added Polish and Czech local-currency bonds, along with dollar-denominated Venezuelan and Lebanese securities, to its portfolios. These acquisitions reflect a focus on beaten-down credits offering higher yields, with the expectation of price recovery if market conditions stabilize.
4. Rate Cut Outlook and Fed Odds
Investors have scaled back bets on a rate increase this year, pricing in less than a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve hike. AllianceBernstein anticipates that central banks will pivot to rate cuts rather than hikes to counteract a growth slowdown triggered by oil price pressures and broader economic headwinds.