Aluminium falls to a 12-week low on stronger dollar
DBB•Aluminium fell to a 12-week low of $3,116 a metric ton as the dollar strengthened and trading volumes thinned while China’s markets were closed for a public holiday. The benchmark was down 1.5% at $3,121 by 1005 GMT.
1. Prices hit a low
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.5% to $3,121 a metric ton by 1005 GMT after touching $3,116, its lowest since July 7. Copper fell 1.1% to $14,254.50 a ton after reaching a two-week low.
2. Supply outlook shifts
Aluminium prices are down 17% since reaching a four-year high in June, as concerns about Gulf supply eased and expectations grew for new Indonesian production capacity. Macquarie cut its forecast for this year’s global aluminium deficit by 120,000 tons to 820,000 tons, citing faster-than-expected restarts in the Middle East.
3. Longer-term forecasts
Macquarie said Chinese downstream restocking ahead of the holiday was squeezing a relatively tight near-term market, but forecast a 410,000-ton surplus in 2027. It expects average aluminium prices of $3,050 a ton in 2027, compared with $3,325 this year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange was closed for China’s National Day holiday until October 8.
