Amazon’s documentary Melania grossed an estimated $7 million in its opening weekend across more than 1,700 U.S. theaters, topping pre-release projections of $2 million to $5 million and ranking among the best documentary debuts of the last decade. The performance was driven by strong turnout in Republican-leaning states—Texas and Florida led the way—and a predominantly female audience (72 percent), especially women aged 55 and older in small-town markets. Amazon spent $40 million to acquire the film’s rights and an additional $35 million on a marketing blitz that included NFL playoff ad spots, social-media campaigns on platform X, and high-visibility placements around the Las Vegas Sphere. While the opening weekend beat expectations, the combination of high upfront costs and the likelihood of a steep drop in screens and ticket sales in subsequent weeks casts doubt on the project’s theatrical profitability.

Early international results underscore the uphill battle for break-even. In the U.K., Melania generated just $44,960 from 155 cinemas (an average of $289 per venue), while Italy contributed $7,696 across 94 screens (an $81 average). Critic responses have been lukewarm—7 percent on Rotten Tomatoes—and word-of-mouth momentum appears limited. With total expenditures of $75 million and typical theatrical splits leaving Amazon with roughly half of box-office revenues, analysts calculate the film would need to sustain U.S. grosses well into the tens of millions more—an unlikely scenario—to recoup its investment. For Amazon’s broader content strategy, this underscores the risks of high-cost, event-driven releases versus serialized or evergreen streaming offerings that can amortize costs over time.