American Airlines Forecasts $1 Billion Loss at O’Hare While United Eyes $500 Million Profit
American Airlines expects a $1 billion operating loss at Chicago O’Hare this year, while United Airlines projects a $500 million profit at the same hub. United CEO Scott Kirby’s comments highlight intensifying competition and cost pressures for the carrier at its key Midwest gateway.
1. Stock Underperformance Despite Broader Market Rally
American Airlines shares fell 2.33% on the last trading session even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both recorded gains of over 0.8%. The drop marked the carrier’s sixth decline in eight trading days, cutting its year-to-date return to roughly 4%. Analysts at Jefferies and Bank of America have revised their ratings lower this week, highlighting concerns over fuel cost volatility and muted international demand recovery compared with domestic bookings.
2. Winter Storm Disruptions Weigh on Q1 Outlook
Nearly 2,000 U.S. flights operated by American Airlines were canceled on Friday and Saturday ahead of Winter Storm Fern, making Dallas/Fort Worth one of the most affected hubs. Management has warned that weather-related cancellations could reduce first-quarter capacity by 0.5 to 1 point, and has set aside an incremental $50 million reserve for passenger accommodations and crew reassignments if conditions worsen over the next two weeks.
3. Travel Waivers and Revenue Risk
In response to the storm forecast, American Airlines rolled out full-fee travel waivers for customers booked through late Sunday, matching policies from Delta and United. Executives noted that while waivers may dampen short-term ticket revenue, preserving customer loyalty is critical during peak spring-break booking season, which typically contributes 8% of the carrier’s annual revenue. They estimated that each day of widespread waiver usage could cost the airline up to $15 million in net revenue adjustments.
4. Competitive Pressure at Chicago O’Hare Intensifies
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby recently claimed American will incur a $1 billion operating loss at Chicago O’Hare this year, contrasting with United’s projected $500 million profit at the airport. American’s leadership has disputed these figures, pointing out that its ORD unit costs have declined by 7% over the past 12 months due to crew optimization and revised gate leases. Investors are watching closely as the carrier publishes route-level profitability data in its next quarterly update.