Ameriprise keeps S&P 500 year-end target at 8,000 despite higher-for-longer rate risks
AMP•S&P 500 target unchanged at 8,000
Ameriprise kept its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target at 8,000, citing improving earnings expectations despite higher yields.
Full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates were cited near $362, while 2027 estimates were above $417, implying another year of double-digit growth.
What could drive upside or downside
Upside would need a stronger 2027 growth outlook, lower energy-driven inflation, and stabilizing rates.
Downside risks include hotter growth, higher oil, and slower AI capex.
Rates and inflation assumptions remain restrictive
The base case assumes one more 25-basis-point Fed hike before year-end, with policy expected to stay restrictive as core PCE reaches 2% in 2029.
The 10-year Treasury yield ended above 5.0%, and higher term premium tied to large deficit borrowing was seen as capping equity valuations.
