AMG National Trust Bank says housing rebound hinges on affordability, job growth
SPY•AMG National Trust Bank says a housing rebound may begin in affordable markets with job growth if mortgage rates fall; the national payment burden is about 42% of median household income, while Minnesota had 32.1% affordability burden and 1.4% payroll growth.
1. Affordability and jobs
AMG National Trust Bank sees the earliest housing rebound in relatively affordable markets with job growth if mortgage rates fall. The national housing payment burden has eased to about 42% of median household income, still above the 30% affordability threshold. National payrolls grew 0.2% through July 2026. In September, Minnesota’s median market payment burden was 32.1% and payroll growth reached 1.4%, the fastest nationally; West Virginia’s burden was 31.8% while payrolls fell 1.1%.
