Amgen Q4 Beats Estimates, CVS to Drop Prolia and Xgeva from Preferred Lists
Amgen beat Q4 revenue and earnings estimates on strong Repatha and Uplizna volumes, and Cowen raised its price target from $389 to $420 with a Buy rating. CVS Health will drop Prolia and Xgeva from select drug lists on April 1, and Tavneos regulatory uncertainty could pressure shares.
1. CVS Health to Exclude Prolia and Xgeva from Preferred Lists
CVS Health announced it will remove Amgen’s Prolia and Xgeva bone disease treatments from certain preferred drug lists effective April 1, substituting lower‐cost alternatives. Prolia and Xgeva collectively generated approximately $3.2 billion in U.S. sales in 2025, representing nearly 8% of Amgen’s overall revenue. The formulary change is expected to shift roughly 20% of current Prolia and Xgeva scripts to biosimilar or generic competitors, potentially reducing Amgen’s U.S. bone health franchise by up to $640 million annually if similar moves occur at other pharmacy benefit managers.
2. Robust Q4 Performance and Obesity Candidate Focus
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Amgen reported earnings and revenue that exceeded consensus estimates, driven by higher volumes of key oncology and cardiovascular drugs. Total product sales rose 7% year‐over‐year, with Repatha volumes up 15% following favorable outcomes from a long‐term cardiovascular outcomes trial. Meanwhile, attention has turned to Amgen’s late‐stage MariTide obesity program, which is in two pivotal Phase III studies enrolling over 3,000 patients with endpoints including 15% mean weight reduction at 52 weeks. Positive interim safety data announced in January showed a tolerability profile comparable to existing GLP-1 receptor agonists.
3. Analyst Upgrades and Pipeline Outlook
On February 4, Cowen & Co. maintained a Buy rating on Amgen and raised its 12-month price target from $389 to $420, citing strong momentum in Repatha and Uplizna sales and anticipated growth from MariTide. Analysts note that Evenity, Imdelltra and Tezspire are on track to contribute an additional $1.1 billion in combined sales by the end of 2026. However, regulatory tensions around the pending FDA decision on Tavneos – expected mid‐year – and recent setbacks in the rocatinlimab and bemarituzumab oncology programs introduce execution risk, underscoring the importance of upcoming readouts for maintaining long‐term growth projections.