Building new pipelines has in the past been fraught with political risk and environmental opposition, while low prices, regulatory uncertainty and investor focus on shareholder returns have stifled investment needed to significantly boost oil output.
Canadian oil production grew by 4% in 2025 to hit an all-time record of 5.35 million bpd and most analysts predict another 3% to 4% growth in 2026. That compares to growth of 8% or higher in the 2000s and 2010s, when new oil sands mines were being built.
Annual capital investment in Canada's oil sands peaked in 2014, at C$35 billion, compared to C$14.2 billion in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. The last major new oil sands project, Suncor's Fort Hills, started operating in 2018. Since then, companies have concentrated on expanding existing projects.
"If you go back in the last decade, we (the oil sands industry) spent $10 billion per year less than we did the decade before that," said Imperial Oil CEO John Whelan at a conference in June.
Building out enough production to fill the proposed east-west pipeline alone, as well as construct the carbon capture project the Canadian government has said must be built alongside it, would require more than C$100 billion in capital investment, Whelan said.
"It's all doable. It's stuff the oil sands (industry) has done in the past," said Wood Mackenzie analyst Mark Oberstoetter. "But then you had a different view on long-term oil prices, arguably, and kind of a growth-at-all-means mantra at some of these companies which seems quite different today."
Energy consultancy Novi Labs identified 19 different oil sands growth projects that could add 652,000 bpd of production by 2037. Only some of the projects, proposed by companies like Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil, Strathcona Resources and Suncor, have received final investment decisions.
When Novi Labs included other proposed oil sands growth projects — ones companies have indicated are in their medium- or long-term plans, but for which no timing guidance is available — that added another 730,000 bpd, but still fell short of the growth needed to fill the proposed pipes by more than 850,000 bpd.
Canadian oil executives have said they feel more optimistic about the future than they have for years, thanks to Carney's pledges to speed permitting for energy projects and roll back or water down a variety of environmental and climate rules.
But many of the proposed policy changes negotiated between the industry and the federal and Alberta governments — including agreements around carbon pricing, financial supports, and permitting timelines — have not yet been drafted into final legislation.
"Will we see some big projects moving ahead if we get these investment conditions right? That's absolutely our objective," said Kendall Dilling, president of the Oil Sands Alliance industry group in an interview.
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