Analysts boost 2027 copper estimates, but cautious about US stocks and AI demand
XLB•Analysts raised their 2027 copper price forecast by 7.3% to $14,012 per ton, while nearly doubling their forecast for a global surplus to 92,000 tons. They also forecast a 410,000-ton aluminium surplus next year and raised their zinc price estimate by 11%.
1. Copper forecasts rise
A Reuters poll of 25 analysts put the average LME cash copper price in 2027 at $14,012 per metric ton, 7.3% above the July poll forecast. Analysts nearly doubled their forecast for a global copper surplus next year to 92,000 tons from 50,000, and raised their 2026 surplus estimate by 12% to 125,000 tons. Analysts cited uncertainty over US inventories and whether expected AI demand may be overestimated.
2. Aluminium surplus expected
Analysts forecast LME cash aluminium to average $3,001 per ton in 2027, down 2.4% from the previous forecast. They expect a global surplus of 410,000 tons next year, compared with a balanced market in the July poll, and a deficit of 720,000 tons in 2026. One analyst said prices could continue declining as Middle East-related supply disruptions fade and inventories rebuild.
3. Zinc estimate raised
Analysts raised their 2027 zinc price forecast by 11% to $3,487 per ton and edged up their forecast for a surplus to 165,000 tons from 161,000. One analyst said a possible surplus was expected to be modest, with historically low inventories limiting the downside for prices.
