Analysts Downgrade NVR, Inc. to Hold Citing 17.1% Cancellation Rate and Premium Valuation

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NVR, Inc. was downgraded to hold due to premium valuation multiples versus peers and expected sector headwinds. In 2025 its revenue and backlog declined, cancellation rate rose to 17.1%, despite maintaining a $1.11 billion net cash position.

1. Q4 and Full-Year Profit Declines

For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, NVR reported net income of $363.8 million, or $121.54 per diluted share, down 20% and 13%, respectively, from $457.4 million, or $139.93 per diluted share, in Q4 2024. Consolidated revenues fell 5% to $2.71 billion. For the full year, revenues totaled $10.32 billion, a 2% decline versus $10.52 billion in 2024, while net income slipped 20% to $1.34 billion and diluted EPS declined 14% to $436.55.

2. Homebuilding Segment Under Pressure

Homebuilding revenues in Q4 were $2.64 billion, down 5% year-over-year, driven by an 8% drop in settlements to 5,668 homes. New orders rose 3% to 4,951 units but at a lower average price of $454,200 (down 3%). Backlog units fell 15% to 8,448 and backlog dollars were down 16% to $4.01 billion. Gross margin contracted to 20.4% from 23.6%, weighed by higher lot costs, pricing pressure and $35.7 million of contract land deposit impairments.

3. Mortgage Banking and Balance Sheet Strength

Mortgage banking closed loan production in Q4 declined 11% to $1.51 billion, yet segment pre-tax income rose 24% to $57.2 million due to stronger secondary marketing gains. For the year, production was $6.04 billion (down 4%) and pre-tax income was $152.0 million (down 2%). At December 31, 2025, NVR held $1.92 billion in cash and restricted cash for its homebuilding and mortgage operations, resulting in a net cash position of approximately $1.11 billion.

Sources

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