Over the past week, Qualcomm shares have recorded losses for seven consecutive trading sessions, resulting in a 15% decline in market value. This downturn has erased approximately $30 billion from the company’s capitalization, which now stands at $166 billion. The slide represents Qualcomm’s steepest weekly drop in over two years and has been driven primarily by concerns in its handset segment, where seasonal end-market weakness compounded by geopolitical headwinds has weighed on near-term revenue visibility.

Investors have focused on the handset business following a recent downgrade by Mizuho, which cited elongated inventory digestion among Chinese smartphone vendors and rising competition in mid-range 5G modems. Qualcomm’s quarterly shipments to key smartphone customers fell by an estimated 8% sequentially, according to industry sell-side data, raising questions about its ability to sustain pricing power and maintain gross margins above the mid-60% level it achieved last quarter.

Despite the market’s skepticism, Qualcomm’s recent collaboration with HUMAIN—an AI software startup specializing in efficient on-device inference—could unlock significant upside. The partnership aims to integrate HUMAIN’s low-latency neural network accelerators into Qualcomm’s Snapdragon platform, potentially enhancing power efficiency by up to 40% in mobile AI workloads. While this tie-up is expected to contribute incremental revenue beginning in fiscal 2027, it has received little credit in current valuation multiples.

In October, bullish expectations around Qualcomm’s AI exposure underpinned a potential multiple re-rating; however, management’s upcoming fiscal guidance will be critical. With consensus estimates projecting flat revenue growth in the next quarter and non-GAAP operating margin guidance poised to remain in the 32%–33% range, further multiple contraction cannot be ruled out. At current levels, Qualcomm trades at roughly 12 times forward free cash flow, a notable discount relative to its 5-year average of 16 times, suggesting that any downward revision to guidance could push valuation even lower.