Analysts lift copper price outlook but geopolitical and tariff risks linger

Base metal prices (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Eric Onstad in London; editing by Alexander Smith) (([Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com](mailto:Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com);)) Analysts have turned more bullish on copper, lifting price forecasts in a Reuters poll, although estimates remain below current levels as uncertainty over tariffs, mine supply and the Middle East clouds the outlook. COMMODITYPOLL01 Copper has gained more than 10% so far this year, having hit a record above $14,500 in January during a buying spree. The London Metal Exchange cash copper contract CMCU0 is expected to average $13,169 per metric ton in 2026, according to the median forecast of 27 analysts, up 6% from the $12,428 forecast in the previous April poll. Widely used in power and construction, copper is forecast to average $13,250 a ton in the fourth quarter of this year and $13,059 in 2027, lower than the current price of around $13,714 CMCU3. "Demand linked to AI infrastructure, electrification and power investment continues to underpin consumption, while mine supply growth remains a concern following production disruptions and lower guidance from major producers," said Natalie Scott-Gray at StoneX. Copper has risen as the Iran war threatens Middle East sulphur supplies and expectations the U.S. will impose import tariffs have attracted metal to the United States, tightening supplies elsewhere. However, analysts see a healthier overall supply outlook, flipping their 2026 balance outlook to a surplus of 112,000 tons from a deficit of 52,200 tons in the previous poll. Nickel prices have retreated from the near two-year high of $20,000 per metric ton hit in May. Analysts warn that sulphuric acid shortages and Indonesia’s ore quotas could keep the market volatile. Analysts raised their forecasts for LME cash nickel prices CMNI0, expecting them to average $17,250 a ton in the fourth quarter compared with $17,000 in the previous poll and the current price of $17,425. In late June, Indonesia's mining ministry said it had not yet decided its nickel production quota for all of 2026, amid speculation that the quota could be increased. "If Indonesia approves a large increase in production quotas, it would ease concerns over ore availability and could put further downward pressure on nickel prices," said Jennifer Hill at LSEG. The global nickel market is expected to see a surplus of 110,056 tons this year. The price of aluminium CMAL0, vital for transport, construction and packaging, hit a four-year peak around $3,800 in early June due to disrupted supplies from the Middle East. It has since slipped below $3,200 a ton after a ceasefire was agreed. "We expect prices to stabilise from here rather than continue the sharp correction," said Ewa Manthey at ING. "The market has been quick to price out the Middle East risk premium, but supply won't come back overnight." The LME cash aluminium contract is forecast to average $3,307 per metric ton in 2026, slightly lower than the previous forecast of $3,312. The projection for the fourth-quarter average stood at $3,300. Both forecasts are higher than the current price of $3,183. Analysts increased their expectations of shortages, boosting their consensus forecast of global deficit to 1 million tons from a deficit of 910,000 tons in the previous poll.

Analysts lift copper price outlook but geopolitical and tariff risks linger

Base metals poll source note

Copper outlook turns more bullish

Nickel stays volatile on supply concerns

Aluminium risk premium eases but supply stays tight

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