Circle Internet Q3 Revenue Soars 66% to $740M with 70% EBITDA Margin
Circle Internet Group reported Q3 revenue of $739.8 million, up 66% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.64 topping estimates by $0.44 and generating an adjusted EBITDA margin above 70%. USDC circulation surged 108% year-over-year to $73.7 billion, underpinning strong profitability despite post-IPO stock weakness.
1. Robust Stablecoin Revenue and Profitability
Circle Internet Group reported USDC revenue of $740 million in the most recent fiscal year, reflecting 66% year-over-year growth. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 57%, underscoring its ability to convert rapidly expanding transaction volumes into cash flow. Management attributes this performance to ongoing adoption of USDC by corporate treasuries and payment processors, and forecasts a 40% compound annual growth rate in USDC circulation over the next few years despite headwinds from lower interest rates and heightened competition in the stablecoin sector.
2. Post-IPO Volatility Creates Attractive Valuation
Since its public listing, Circle’s share price has fallen approximately 40% from its peak amid a broader sell-off of high-growth fintech names and tightening credit conditions. Analysts now view the pullback as an opportunity, with consensus targets implying upside relative to current levels. Circle’s market capitalization of roughly $18 billion compares favorably to peers when measured on revenue multiple and free cash flow yield, particularly given its visible growth runway in programmable payments and tokenized asset issuance.
3. Mixed Analyst Ratings and Upward Price Target Revisions
Among 24 brokerages covering the stock, four recommend a sell, ten rate it a hold, eight a buy and two a strong buy. In recent months, Goldman Sachs raised its target by 11% after revising growth assumptions for on-chain revenue, while JPMorgan upgraded to overweight following stronger-than-expected stablecoin issuance. Conversely, Mizuho cut its target on concerns about margin pressure and incremental compliance costs. The average one-year price objective now stands near $139, representing a mid-teens premium to current valuation multiples.
4. Insider and Institutional Positioning
Insider selling accelerated in the last quarter, with executives reducing holdings by nearly 17% through secondary transactions valued at over $50 million, a move the company says was partly driven by personal tax planning. Meanwhile, hedge funds and institutional investors added new stakes or increased exposure: PNC Financial boosted its position by 15%, while several wealth managers initiated small positions, collectively allocating an estimated $250 million in fresh capital. These shifts suggest that, despite volatility, both public and private market participants recognize Circle’s long-term potential in digital finance infrastructure.