Analysts Slash IBM Price Targets to $290, Forecast 7% EPS and Free Cash Flow Growth

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Needham and Stifel cut IBM’s price targets to $290 from $340, forecasting 4.5–5.0% constant-currency revenue growth, $12.38 EPS (+7%), and approximately $1 billion free cash flow gain (+7%). Both analysts cite geopolitical tensions, currency headwinds and Gulf conflict risks on software and services, while noting the early Confluent acquisition closing as a tailwind, and anticipate IBM’s April 22 Q1 report to align with existing guidance.

1. Analyst Price Target Reductions

Needham and Stifel each lowered IBM’s price target from $340 to $290 ahead of the April 22 Q1 earnings. Both firms maintained positive outlooks, modeling 4.5–5.0% constant-currency revenue growth, EPS of $12.38 (up 7%), and free cash flow rising by about $1 billion (7%).

2. Drivers of Outlook Adjustments

Analysts pointed to software and services pressure from geopolitical tensions, potential Gulf conflict spillover and unfavorable currency moves as reasons for trimming forecasts. They also highlighted the earlier-than-expected closing of the Confluent acquisition as a key offset providing growth momentum.

3. Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings

IBM will report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, with both firms anticipating a seasonally softer quarter that remains in line with full-year guidance. Given the early year stage and macro uncertainty, analysts do not expect any material revisions to the company’s annual outlook.

Sources

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