Anchor Capital says US inflation rebound reflects supply shocks, not demand surge
TLT•Anchor Capital said US PCE inflation rose to 3.7% year over year in July, mainly because of supply shocks, and expects a shallow, short-lived US tightening cycle.
1. Inflation outlook
Anchor Capital said July’s 3.7% year-over-year rise in US PCE inflation was driven mainly by supply shocks, with limited evidence of second-round effects. It cited moderating wage growth and unit labor-cost growth of about 1.4% year over year in the second quarter of 2026. The firm expects core goods disinflation to resume as tariff effects fade and shelter inflation to cool as market rents run near 2%; its base case is for a shallow, short-lived US tightening cycle.
