Wells Fargo Raises Annaly Capital Price Target to $25 on Q4 EPS Beat
Wells Fargo kept an Overweight rating on Annaly Capital and lifted its price target from $23 to $25. The company beat Q4 EPS estimates with $0.74 per share but revenue fell 21.8% short at $366.6 million, while economic return reached 8.6% and book value per share rose to $20.21.
1. Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight Rating and Raises Price Target
On January 29, 2026, Wells Fargo reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Annaly Capital Management and increased its 12-month price target from $23 to $25. The upgrade reflects Wells Fargo’s positive outlook on Annaly’s ability to benefit from a steeper yield curve and ongoing portfolio repositioning. Analysts cited the company’s disciplined capital deployment and resilient net interest margin as key drivers supporting this more optimistic valuation.
2. Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations with Strong Economic Return
For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Annaly reported earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.74 per share, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.72 by 3.25%. GAAP net income reached $1.40 per average common share, up from $0.78 in the year-ago period. The company delivered an economic return of 8.6% for Q4, contributing to a full-year economic return of 20.2% in 2025, underlining the strength of its diversified mortgage strategy.
3. Revenue Growth and Portfolio Expansion Despite Revenue Shortfall
Annaly generated quarterly revenues of $366.6 million, a 96% increase year-over-year but falling 21.8% short of consensus forecasts. The company’s total portfolio grew to $104.7 billion, including a 6% increase in the Agency segment to $92.9 billion and a 16% rise in Residential Credit to $8.0 billion. Management highlighted record correspondent channel activity and the closing of eight securitizations totaling $4.6 billion during the quarter as drivers of portfolio expansion.
4. Solid Balance Sheet Metrics and Attractive Dividend Yield
Annaly ended Q4 with a book value of $20.21 per share and economic leverage of 5.6x, down from 5.7x in the prior quarter. The company maintained a GAAP leverage ratio of 7.2x and held $9.4 billion of total assets available for financing, representing 58% of equity. The board declared a fourth-quarter cash dividend of $0.70 per share, supporting a dividend yield above 14% based on recent share valuations and underscoring the REIT’s commitment to returning capital to investors.