Apollo Global Forecasts $50 Oil Spike Adding 1% to Q2 Inflation
Strait of Hormuz disruptions could cut 6m barrels per day, sending WTI above $90, threatening US inflation. Apollo Global economist Torsten Sløk warns a $50/barrel oil spike could add 1 ppt to Q2 inflation, underscoring potential asset management headwinds during volatile energy markets.
1. Global Supply Disruption
Analysts estimate Strait of Hormuz closures could reduce global oil flows by up to 6 million barrels per day next week, with Iraq halting 1.5 million bpd and Kuwait cutting output after storage capacity fills; Qatar warned crude might reach $150 per barrel if tanker traffic remains stalled.
2. Oil Price Rally
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped over 35% in a single week to surpass $90 per barrel, driving U.S. average gas prices above $3.40 per gallon – the highest since September 2024 – as markets price in escalating supply risks.
3. Apollo's Inflation Forecast
Apollo Global economist Torsten Sløk projects that a $50-per-barrel oil spike could add a full percentage point to second-quarter U.S. inflation, highlighting potential headwinds for asset management performance if energy-driven price pressure persists.