As Apple prepares to release its fiscal Q1 results this Thursday, Wall Street analysts remain divided on how the iPhone maker will perform. According to a recent poll of 25 sell-side strategists, 48% expect earnings per share to beat consensus estimates, while 36% project a miss and the remainder forecast results in line with expectations. Investor focus is centered on guidance for the current quarter, with 60% of respondents anticipating that management will narrow its revenue outlook, reflecting concerns over supply constraints and consumer demand in Greater China.

The start of earnings season coincides with stronger-than-expected durable goods orders in December, which rose 1.8% month over month versus forecasts of 1.2%. This data bolsters the case for a resilient industrial sector but complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision as it meets this Wednesday. Economists assign a 95% probability that policymakers will leave rates unchanged in the 3.50–3.75% range, yet minutes may signal openness to further tightening if inflation persists. Apple investors will be watching for any commentary on consumer financing costs, given the company’s growing services and wearables revenue streams.

Despite market chatter around Apple’s AI initiatives, the single most important data point this quarter is iPhone unit volume. Historically, the handset accounts for approximately 50% of total revenue each quarter. Third-party channel checks indicate that holiday-quarter shipments of the latest iPhone 17 series exceeded 85 million units, beating consensus by 5%. CEO Tim Cook previously commented that initial demand outstripped supply, forcing the company to accelerate production by 10% over plan. Investors will scrutinize management’s ability to sustain that momentum into the March quarter.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng today reiterated a Buy rating on Apple, with a $320 price target implying roughly 30% upside from current levels. Ng highlights three key upside catalysts: stronger-than-expected holiday-quarter iPhone ASPs, a rebound in Greater China sales, and the introduction of a foldable iPhone in late 2026. By contrast, the most bullish Wall Street forecast comes from Dan Ives of Wedbush, who expects Apple to capitalize on a potential supercycle and has set a $350 target. Both analysts cite the forthcoming Apple Intelligence launch and extended partnership with Alphabet’s Gemini models as drivers of services revenue growth over the next 12 months.