On Tuesday, Apple shares fell by almost 3% even after Evercore and Citi each issued constructive pre-earnings notes ahead of the company’s January 29 report. Evercore raised its iPhone 17 unit shipment forecast by 5% for the March quarter, citing stronger component allocation, while Citi highlighted potential upside in services revenue growth. The decline in share price reflected broader market risk-off positioning driven by escalating U.S. tariff threats on European goods over Greenland, undercutting the optimism around Apple’s next iPhone cycle.

Counterpoint Research data show that Apple led the global smartphone market in Q4 with a 21.8% share, up from 16.8% a year earlier, driven by a 28% increase in shipments to mainland China. This performance marks Apple’s highest growth rate among the top five brands and consolidates its position as the market leader in the world’s largest smartphone market. Strong China results have prompted bullish revisions from Wedbush (to $350) and Evercore ISI (to $330) for Apple’s 2026 targets, emphasizing that the core iPhone business remains the primary revenue driver even as AI initiatives ramp up.

Several analysts warn that Apple’s planned AI features for iOS—built on Google’s Gemini model—are running behind schedule and may not be fully integrated into Siri until late 2026. With ChatGPT and other AI apps already ranking among the top downloads on the App Store, investors worry that delays will limit Apple’s ability to monetize AI on its devices. Meanwhile, Apple’s five-year total return of 83% trails only slightly behind the S&P 500’s 81%, but last year the stock gained just 11% versus a 16% rise in the benchmark, suggesting that Wall Street may be starting to discount further upside absent a clear AI roadmap.