AppLovin Slides 40% Despite 66% Q4 Revenue Growth, $750 Target
AppLovin shares have slid 40% despite 66% year-over-year Q4 2025 revenue growth, 84% EBITDA margins and robust free cash flow driven by its self-serve Axon platform. Evercore reiterated Outperform with a $750 target, citing 14.6x 2027 EV/EBITDA valuation, strong gaming advertiser gains and 148% domain growth since December 2025.
1. Share Price Decline and Fundamentals
AppLovin shares have declined by 40% over recent months even as Q4 2025 results showed 66% year-over-year revenue growth, 84% EBITDA margins and strong free cash flow, underpinned by the successful rollout of the self-serve Axon platform.
2. Evercore Rating and Valuation
Evercore reiterated its Outperform rating and maintained a $750 price target, highlighting a 14.6x estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA multiple and citing feedback that AppLovin is poised to capture greater gaming advertiser budgets over the next 6–12 months.
3. Axon Platform Expansion
The Axon platform continues to evolve beyond gaming, with advertiser adoption driving wallet share gains; domain counts increased 148% between December 2025 and March 2026, and new AI-driven video creative tools announced in March are seen as future e-commerce catalysts.
4. Institutional Stake Adjustment
Allspring Global Investments trimmed its AppLovin stake by 5.7%, selling 13,102 shares to hold 218,590 shares at quarter end, reflecting minor repositioning among institutional investors.