Aquamarine Capital Cuts American Express Stake by 69% After 23.6x P/E Spike
Aquamarine Capital slashed its American Express stake by around 69% in the fourth quarter, marking one of the largest portfolio trims. The selloff follows the stock trading at a 23.6-times trailing P/E multiple, prompting profit-taking due to elevated valuations.
1. Major Stake Reduction by Aquamarine Capital
In the fourth quarter, Guy Spier’s Aquamarine Capital executed a significant reduction in its position in American Express, trimming the stake by approximately 69%. This move made American Express one of the largest sell orders in the fund’s portfolio for the period. The sale lowered the company’s weight in Aquamarine from roughly 8% of the total fund value to just under 3%, reflecting Spier’s view that the stock’s near 24 times trailing price-to-earnings multiple is demanding for a business tied closely to middle-income consumer spending.
2. Regulatory Headwinds from Proposed Interest-Rate Cap
President Donald Trump has called on Congress to impose a temporary cap of 10% on credit-card interest rates for one year, a policy that directly threatens the revenue model of issuers like American Express. With average card APRs currently hovering between 17% and 23%, a cap at 10% could slice interest income by up to 50%, according to industry estimates. The credit-card issuer has not publicly adjusted its pricing but must now prepare for possible legislative action before the January 20 deadline.
3. Industry Commentary and Investor Implications
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a stringent interest-rate ceiling would constitute an 'economic disaster,' forecasting a contraction of credit-card lending for 80% of U.S. consumers. For American Express, which generates nearly 60% of its profits from interest and fees, such a cap could force the elimination of up to 20% of its receivables base, based on consensus estimates. Investors will be watching the next quarterly report for signs of margin compression and any changes to the company’s consumer-lending strategy.