Archer Aviation’s roadmap to commercial operations hinges squarely on approval from the Federal Aviation Administration. The company’s first eVTOL model, Midnight, completed over 150 test flights in 2025 and logged 120 flight hours, but it has yet to file a formal certification package. Management has projected submission in late 2026, followed by a 12–18-month review period. Any delays could push back revenue generation from scheduled pilot programs in cities like Miami and Dallas, where initial service agreements call for delivering up to 50 aircraft by 2028. Investors should note that Archer has $1.2 billion in cash reserves as of Q3 2025, which under current burn rates funds operations through mid-2027—highlighting the importance of a timely FAA decision.

Archer’s share price declined approximately 23% during 2025, outpaced by peers and weighed down by mounting quarterly losses—net losses rose from $106.9 million in Q2 2024 to $206 million in Q2 2025—and uncertainty around commercial certification. Short-seller reports questioned test-timeline projections and ramp-up plans, contributing to heightened volatility. In early 2026, however, the stock has recovered nearly 18% as Archer announced a strategic collaboration with defense-technology firm Anduril to co-develop a hybrid-propulsion VTOL aircraft for U.S. military use. This partnership unlocks access to specialized testing facilities and potential defense contracts, diversifying Archer’s revenue profile and bolstering investor confidence in the company’s technological capabilities.