Archer-Daniels-Midland Reports Q4 Net Earnings of $456 M, Sets 2026 EPS Forecast $3.60–$4.25
ADM's Q4 net earnings were $456 million (adjusted $422 million), with GAAP EPS of $0.94 and adjusted EPS of $0.87, and full-year net earnings were $1.1 billion (adjusted $1.7 billion) with GAAP EPS $2.23 and adjusted EPS $3.43. For 2026, ADM forecasts adjusted EPS of $3.60–$4.25, plans $1.3–$1.5 billion capex and raised dividend by 2%.
1. Dividend Resilience and Cash Flow Strength
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company extended its record dividend growth streak to over 50 consecutive years, reflecting the durability of its cash generation even in a volatile macro environment. Over the past decade, ADM’s long-term free cash flow compound annual growth rate has outpaced its share price appreciation, providing ample support for shareholder distributions. In 2025, the company generated $5.5 billion of operating cash flow and $2.7 billion before working capital changes, underpinning a 2% increase in the quarterly payout—the 53rd straight annual raise.
2. Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results
In the fourth quarter of 2025, ADM reported net earnings of $456 million and adjusted net earnings of $422 million, translating to GAAP EPS of $0.94 and adjusted EPS of $0.87. For the full year, net earnings reached $1.1 billion, with adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion, or GAAP EPS of $2.23 and adjusted EPS of $3.43. These results were achieved despite a 29% year-over-year decline in pre-tax earnings for the quarter and a 44% drop for the full year, driven largely by external trade headwinds and policy delays.
3. Biofuel Mandate Clarity and Trade Normalization as Earnings Catalysts
Management emphasized that U.S. biofuel policy clarity and normalization of China trade flows will be pivotal for driving a recovery in margins and volumes through 2026. The company’s guidance for 2026 anticipates adjusted EPS in a range of $3.60 to $4.25; the lower end assumes continued policy deferral and flat crush margins, while the upper end reflects potential crush margin expansion, manufacturing efficiency gains and firmer customer demand. Capital expenditures are forecast at $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, with cost-saving initiatives on track to deliver $500 million to $750 million of aggregate savings over a three- to five-year horizon.
4. Segment Profit Trends and Operational Highlights
Total segment operating profit for Q4 was $821 million, down 22% year-over-year. Within Ag Services & Oilseeds, profit declined 31% to $444 million as lower North American soybean exports and adverse mark-to-market swings (a net negative $1 million versus a prior-year positive $50 million) weighed on results. Crushing earnings fell 69% on weaker crush margins, while Carbohydrate Solutions profit dipped 6% to $299 million and Nutrition profit slipped 11% to $78 million. Full-year segment operating profit totaled $3.24 billion, with Nutrition growing 8% to $417 million despite volume headwinds in starches and sweeteners.