Arkea AM sees ECB September rate hike as euro zone inflation pressures persist
TLT•Arkea Asset Management sees policy divergence as inflation stays sticky
Arkea Asset Management flagged rising policy divergence as central banks weigh sticky inflation against resilient growth in late August 2026.
Markets priced a September Fed hike probability below 30% as July inflation cooled; 10-year Treasury yields held near 4.7%.
Euro zone data stayed firm; investors saw a near-certain 25-bp ECB hike in September as energy costs pushed August inflation toward 3.4%.
Japan shifted more hawkish; markets priced an 80% chance of a September BoJ hike as yen weakness lifted underlying inflation pressures.
Risk premia stayed elevated on Middle East tensions; gold rose above USD 4,600 an ounce while Brent traded in an USD 86-90 range.
