JP Morgan estimated the global oil market was in surplus by 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million bpd in October. Goldman Sachs said global oil stocks did not decline in September and October, while near-term Brent swaps pointed to ample supply.
Recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production elsewhere and weaker demand have pushed global oil supply above consumption, JP Morgan said. It estimated the surplus widened from 1.1 million barrels per day in September to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average of 1.3 million bpd.
Goldman Sachs estimated global oil stocks did not decline in September and October, after falling in the months following the start of the Iran war. Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 14 million bpd in October, about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports averaged 3.1 million bpd, just over half of normal volumes, Vortexa said.
Near-term Brent swaps moved into contango, a structure that generally reflects ample supply for immediate delivery. Brent futures remained in backwardation, indicating tight supply in the near term; trader Adi Imsirovic said futures could also move into contango if swaps remain there.
