Asian spot LNG prices hit five-month high on Hormuz impasse

S&P Global Energy assessed its daily Northwest Europe LNG price benchmark for cargoes delivered in September on an ex-ship basis at **$21.99/mmBtu** on Thursday, a **$0.405/mmBtu** discount to the front-month price at the Dutch TTF gas hub. Spark Commodities assessed the price at **$21.948/mmBtu**, while Argus assessed it at **$21.890/mmBtu**. In LNG freight, Atlantic rates fell to **$20,000/day**, the lowest spot rates on record for this time of year for a standard LNG carrier. Pacific rates fell to **$61,500/day**, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. U.S. Gulf Coast prompt cargoes are currently priced at **$21.047/mmBtu**, the highest prompt cargo valuation since December 2022, he added. The U.S. front-month arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope is still firmly pointing to Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama is open and is marginally pointing to Asia, Afghan said. Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices hit a five-month high this week as hopes for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded amid an impasse in U.S.-Iran talks to end the nearly six-month-old conflict. The average price for October delivery into north-east Asia LNG-AS was estimated at **$22.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)**, the highest since March 20 and up from **$21.30/mmBtu** last week. "We see the geopolitical premium remaining firmly embedded in the global LNG market, as supply remains constrained and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still severely restricted," said Arturo Regalado, senior LNG analyst at Kpler. "Any indication of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations could rapidly unwind some of the geopolitical premium built into prices. However, the current situation suggests a breakthrough is not imminent, keeping risks skewed to the upside for now," he added. The U.S. and Iran have twice announced ceasefire deals, in April and June, aiming to restore the free flow of shipping through Hormuz on a path towards ending the conflict but both quickly crumbled. Iran said on Friday that its response to any new U.S. threats would be "devastating" after Washington pledged to impose the toughest financial penalties in history with the aim of toppling the Iranian leadership. "The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. We estimate around 33 LNG cargoes have exited in the last six months, averaging around five per month, against more normal levels of 90 to 100 per month. There's no immediate resolution in sight," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS. In Asia, Kpler expects softer-than-expected Chinese gas production and tighter Indonesian domestic balances to provide upside to LNG demand. Nuclear outages in Japan offer additional modest support, Regaldo said. In Europe, gas prices have touched fresh five-month highs on the Middle East political impasse and as attention turned to gas storage which remains at historically low levels. NG/EU "Europe has lost flexible U.S. LNG cargoes to Asia over the summer. Europe took only 51% of U.S. exports during March-July 2026, down from 67% in the same period of 2025, while Asia’s share rose to 29% from 16%, according to ICIS ship-tracking," ICIS' Froley said. However, narrowing price spreads between Europe and Asia and improving storage economics are making Europe more attractive again, potentially boosting U.S. LNG deliveries to Europe in the coming weeks, he added.

Asian spot LNG prices hit five-month high on Hormuz impasse

Freight rates fall as arbitrage shifts

Asian LNG prices rise to five-month high

Hormuz restrictions keep geopolitical premium in place

Asia demand support and Europe storage tighten the market

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