The United States and Israel launched an aerial bombing and missile campaign against Iran on February 28, resulting in Tehran threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carried about 20% of global crude and refined products prior to the start of the war.
The strait remains contested with Iran occasionally striking at vessels and the US Navy working to ensure safe passage for tankers from Gulf exporters such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.
The exact volumes managing to leave the Strait of Hormuz and from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea have been the subject of dispute, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claiming on several occasions that as much as 15 million bpd was leaving the Middle East, but tanker tracking services reporting lower levels.
A better picture is probably gained by looking at crude imports from the Middle East, which overwhelmingly go to Asia with smaller volumes heading to Africa, Europe and North America.
If Wright's numbers are accurate and some 15 million bpd have been leaving the Middle East since early August, when he first made the claims, then this oil would have arrived at ports across Asia by the end of September.
Asia's imports from the Middle East were 12.56 million bpd in September, according to Kpler, up from 11.66 million bpd in August and more than 5 million bpd above the post-conflict low of 7.12 million bpd in April.
However, the September estimate is still about 3.53 million bpd below the 16.09 million bpd average for the three months leading up to the conflict.
This means that while there is some evidence to support Wright's claims, the fact remains that Asia is still getting substantially less crude from the Middle East currently than it did prior to US President Donald Trump launching his war of choice against Iran.
It's also worth noting that if global imports of crude from the Middle East are assessed, this totals 14.7 million bpd in September, not far off Wright's claim of 15 million bpd of exports, but even this is still some 3 million bpd below pre-war levels.
In other words, despite the efforts of the US Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and the risks being taken by oil companies, shippers and traders, not to mention crews, to transit the strait, the situation is still markedly worse than it was prior to the start of the conflict.
The recent closure of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline after a strike reportedly from Iraq will likely mean lower imports from the Middle East for October, although they may recover in November as the pipeline has been repaired and is operating again.
Refined fuel imports and premiums stay elevated
The still constrained crude flows into Asia are continuing to show up in flows of refined products.
Similar to crude, Asia's imports of light and middle distillates showed some recovery in September but remain well below pre-conflict levels.
A total of 5.84 million bpd of light and middle distillates are forecast to arrive at Asian ports in September, up from 5.25 million bpd in August, but still more than 1 million bpd down from the 7.06 million bpd in the three months leading up to the start of the conflict, according to Kpler data.
The weakness in refined fuel imports means that prices for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline remain at near-record premiums to global crude benchmarks such as Brent futures.
The front-month contract was trading around $99 a barrel in Asia on Wednesday, but Singapore gasoil, the building block for diesel, was at $173.84 a barrel and gasoline was at $139.60.
Before the start of the Iran war the premium for these fuels over crude was more typically in a range between $10 and $20 a barrel.
Asia crude imports recover but stay below pre-conflict levels
Asia's imports of crude oil rose to the highest in September since the Iran war started, but even with the recovery they remained some 13% below pre-conflict levels.
The world's biggest oil-consuming region is on track to import 23.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up from 23.38 million bpd in August and the most since February, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.
Asia's crude imports have been trending higher since hitting the lowest in more than 10 years in April, when arrivals of just 19.15 million bpd were recorded by Kpler.
But despite the recent recovery in Asia's oil imports, they are still well below the 27.55 million bpd average for the three months ended February.
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