Wright hasn't given specifics to back his claims, but he did say in early August that over an unspecified seven-day period flows out of the strait were 9 million bpd, taking total exports from the Middle East to 15 million bpd once shipments from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman are added.
The most Kpler, which uses satellites as well as AIS data to track vessels, was able to see exiting the Strait of Hormuz in any week in August was 4.26 million bpd in the seven days beginning August 3.
For August as a whole Kpler has tracked exports of crude via the Strait of Hormuz at 2.3 million bpd, down from 4.49 million bpd in July and 15.82 million bpd in the three months leading up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
India's August crude imports are estimated at 4.51 million bpd, down from 5.07 million bpd in July and the lowest since March, according to Kpler.
Arrivals from the Middle East are estimated at 1.45 million bpd, down slightly from July's 1.50 million bpd and just over half of the 2.88 million bpd average for the three months to the end of February.
What the import data shows is that if there is a strong recovery in exports from the Middle East, they aren't heading to India.
There has been some recovery in Asia's arrivals of crude from the Middle East, with imports of 11.11 million bpd being discharged at Asian ports in August, up from 10.76 million bpd in July.
Asia's imports from the Middle East have risen from April's 7.01 million bpd, which was the lowest in Kpler records going back to 2013, but are still down from the 15.82 million bpd in the three months leading up to the start of the conflict.
It's also worth noting that arrivals in July and August were likely boosted by cargoes that left the Middle East in the brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran from mid-June to early July.
It's also the case that if 15 million bpd of crude has been leaving the Middle East since early August, that much of this will only show up in September arrivals, especially in countries with longer voyage times such as Japan, South Korea and China.
But as yet there is no evidence that Asia's crude imports from the Middle East are even close to what they were prior to the Iran conflict.
XLE•
