Asia's LNG imports likely to rise despite surging prices as El Niño clouds outlook
UNG•Asia's LNG imports are estimated at 23.31 million metric tons in October, a three-month high, despite spot prices reaching $29.30 per mmBtu. China’s imports are forecast to rise, while Japan’s are expected to fall and Europe’s remain below last year’s level.
1. Asian imports rise
Asia's LNG arrivals are estimated at 23.31 million metric tons in October, the highest since July, according to data compiled by Kpler. China’s imports are forecast at 5.47 million tons, up from 5.20 million in September, while Japan’s are expected to decline to 4.47 million tons from 4.63 million.
2. Prices curb demand
Spot LNG for delivery to north Asia rose to $29.30 per mmBtu in the week to October 16, its highest since December 2023 and almost triple its level at the end of February. Japan’s utilities had 2.54 million tons of LNG inventories on October 18, up 36% from the same time in 2025. Europe’s October imports are estimated at 9.11 million tons, below the 10.59 million tons recorded a year earlier.
3. Winter outlook varies
Europe’s gas inventories were 74.6% full on October 21, 11 percentage points below the same time last year. Forecasters are predicting a strong El Niño this northern winter, which would usually bring warmer, wetter weather to Europe but may bring more severe winter storms to China, Japan and South Korea.
