ASML has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the AI investment cycle, with photolithography orders rising sharply as data-center operators expand capacity. Over the past 12 months, the company’s shares have climbed approximately 80%, reflecting record bookings for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems. In the first fiscal quarter, ASML reported €6.5 billion in net sales, up 25% year-on-year, driven by a 40% jump in EUV shipments. Management reiterated guidance for at least 15% revenue growth in 2026, supported by a backlog exceeding €40 billion and strong customer commitments from leading AI chip fabs in Taiwan, South Korea and the United States.

Despite the strong run-up, consensus among 20 sell-side analysts places ASML’s price objective at €1,350 over the next 12 months, implying further upside of nearly 15%. The consensus valuation rests on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 44.6× and an average earnings-per-share forecast of €25.30 for fiscal 2026. Several research firms have upgraded their recommendations this month, citing the company’s near-monopolistic position in EUV lithography and expected pull-through orders for next-generation high-NA tools by late 2027.

ASML shares fell as much as 3.7% in recent trading sessions following renewed U.S. tariff threats on European exports, as investors weighed potential headwinds to machine shipments. While a 10% levy could modestly impact near-term order timing, ASML’s exposure to U.S. chipmakers represents under 20% of total sales. Goldman Sachs estimates that even a 25% tariff would shave no more than 0.1% off Europe’s GDP, suggesting any drag on ASML would be offset by robust demand from non-U.S. markets. Management affirmed that long-term customer contracts include pricing protection clauses, mitigating margin pressure in adverse trade scenarios.