ASML Q4 Net Bookings Double to €13.2B as China Demand Slows

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ASML reported Q4 net bookings of €13.2 billion, more than double analyst forecasts of €6.2 billion, and revenue rose 5% year-over-year to €9.7 billion on AI-driven foundry and memory demand. Management projects 4–19% revenue growth in 2026 but warns of a China slowdown, tempering investor enthusiasm.

1. Orders Surge to €13.2 Billion in Q4

ASML reported net bookings of €13.2 billion for Q4 2025, more than double the consensus forecast of €6.2 billion. This record quarterly order intake was driven by hyperscalers ramping AI infrastructure deployments and leading memory manufacturers expanding capacity for next-generation DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. Orders for high-NA EUV systems accounted for €3.7 billion of the total, reflecting accelerating demand for advanced patterning tools capable of sub-2nm nodes.

2. Backlog Hits All-Time High of €39 Billion

Following the Q4 bookings beat, ASML's unfilled order backlog swelled to €39 billion, up 45% year-over-year. Management noted that over 80% of this backlog represents EUV systems, with the remainder comprised of DUV immersion scanners and services. The growing backlog underpins visibility for at least the next three years of production capacity, as ASML runs seven EUV tool lines continuously at its Veldhoven factory and scales output at new facilities in Taiwan and the U.S.

3. Margin Expansion and Capital Return Plans Accelerate

Higher average selling prices—up 12% sequentially to €170 million per EUV unit—and an expanding installed base services mix are expected to drive gross margins from 49% in 2025 to 52% in 2026. ASML reiterated its commitment to return €8 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends in 2026, representing roughly 40% of free cash flow. Management also guided R&D and capex spending of €3.5 billion and €2.8 billion respectively, to sustain technology leadership and capacity expansion.

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