ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook to €36-40B as PE Shrinks to Decade Low
ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €36–40 billion from €34–39 billion after expanding capacity despite a complex supply chain in Q1, yet shares fell 4.2% on elevated expectations. Meanwhile, forward P/E of 37 times represents a 17% premium to Applied Materials and a 5% discount to Lam Research for the first time in 14 years.
1. Q1 Earnings and Guidance Revision
ASML reported robust Q1 performance, enabling management to boost full-year revenue guidance to €36–40 billion from the prior €34–39 billion range. The upgrade reflects accelerated capacity expansion despite supply-chain complexities and underscores confidence in sustained demand for EUV systems.
2. Peer-Valuation Anomaly
The company now trades at roughly 37 times forward earnings—about 17% above Applied Materials' multiple but 5% below Lam Research's—marking the narrowest premium to Applied Materials since 2014 and the first discount to Lam in 14 years. This shift highlights relative underperformance versus peers that have each gained over 50% YTD.
3. Market Reaction and Outlook
Shares fell 4.2% on the day of the guidance raise, suggesting investors are cautious about ASML meeting elevated expectations. Despite a 36% YTD gain, ASML trails peer rallies driven by AI data-center spending, leaving its valuation sensitive to near-term execution against lofty forecasts.