ASML Slips 4% After Draft MATCH Act Aims to Block China Tool Sales
ASML stock fell 4% after U.S. lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act draft to align export controls and block immersion lithography tool sales and servicing to China. ASML derived 29% of its 2025 revenue from China, with analysts warning of a 5-10% EPS hit and potential Chinese retaliation.
1. MATCH Act Draft Provisions
The draft MATCH Act, introduced in the U.S. House, would expand export controls on semiconductor equipment by blocking sales and servicing of deep ultraviolet immersion lithography tools to major Chinese chipmakers and tasks allies to adopt similar measures within 150 days.
2. Revenue Exposure to China
ASML generated approximately 29% of its 2025 revenue from China and projects this share to fall to about 20% in 2026, with sales of older lithography systems remaining unaffected by the draft legislation.
3. Analyst Estimates and Potential Impact
Analysts estimate that restricting China tool shipments and servicing could reduce ASML’s annual sales by a low single-digit percentage and cut earnings per share by as much as 10%, while potential Chinese retaliation could further disrupt supply chains.