ASML To Deploy Over 80 EUV Systems by 2027; UBS Retains €1,600 Target
UBS analysts reiterated a Buy rating on ASML with a €1,600 price target after confirming management’s plan to deploy over 80 EUV lithography systems by 2027. They forecast a 10% China revenue decline in 2026 offset by non-China logic and memory strength, and model full-year gross margin rising to 53.8%.
1. UBS Reaffirms Buy Rating and €1,600 Target
UBS analysts maintained their Buy rating on ASML and kept the price target at €1,600 after a roadshow with ASML’s CEO and CFO, citing underestimated manufacturing flexibility and productivity gains across the tool portfolio.
2. EUV Capacity and New Model F
ASML management reiterated its goal of installing more than 80 EUV lithography systems in 2027, emphasizing demand-driven output and disciplined overbuilding. The planned introduction of the new EUV model F in 2027 is expected to boost capacity without proportional increases in unit output.
3. China Revenue Outlook and Product Demand
Analysts project ASML’s China revenues will fall by 10% in 2026 before bouncing back 9% in 2027, but anticipate strength in advanced logic and memory outside China will more than offset this shortfall. They also noted that record lithography spending in late 2025 is likely to benefit deposition and etch equipment in 2026 rather than drive immediate lithography gains.
4. Margin Guidance and High NA Outlook
ASML reported a first-quarter gross margin of 53% and reiterated full-year guidance of 51–53%, while UBS models a 53.8% margin toward the top of that range. On next-generation High NA EUV technology, expectations include over 90% tool availability in H2 2026, 20–40% cost savings versus alternative patterning, and initial insertion by 2028–2029.